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Prisoner's Dilemma & Tit for Tat Winning Strategy




 


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    Prisoner's Dilemma & Tit for Tat Winning Strategy

    Will the two prisoners cooperate to minimize total loss of liberty, or will one of them, trusting the other to cooperate, betray him so as to go free?
    Will the two prisoners cooperate to minimize total loss of liberty, or will one of them, trusting the other to cooperate, betray him so as to go free?

    In game theory, the prisoner's dilemma (sometimes abbreviated PD) is a type of non-zero-sum game in which two players may each "cooperate" with or "defect" (i.e., betray) the other player. In this game, as in all game theory, the only concern of each individual player ("prisoner") is maximizing his/her own payoff, without any concern for the other player's payoff. The unique equilibrium for this game is a Pareto-suboptimal solution—that is, rational choice leads the two players to both play defect even though each player's individual reward would be greater if they both played cooperate.

    Tit for tat is a highly effective strategy in game theory for the iterated prisoner's dilemma. Based on the English saying meaning "equivalent retaliation" ("tit for tat"), an agent using this strategy will initially cooperate, then respond in kind to an opponent's previous action. If the opponent previously was cooperative, the agent is cooperative. If not, the agent is not. This is similar to reciprocal altruism in biology.

    In the classic form of this game, cooperating is strictly dominated by defecting, so that the only possible equilibrium for the game is for all players to defect. In simpler terms, no matter what the other player does, one player will always gain a greater payoff by playing defect. Since in any situation playing defect is more beneficial than cooperating, all rational players will play defect, all things being equal.

    In the iterated prisoner's dilemma the game is played repeatedly. Thus each player has an opportunity to "punish" the other player for previous non-cooperative play. Cooperation may then arise as an equilibrium outcome. The incentive to defect is overcome by the threat of punishment, leading to the possibility of a cooperative outcome. So if the game is infinitely repeated, cooperation may be a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium although both players defecting always remains an equilibrium and there are many other equilibrium outcomes.

    Contents

    Prisoner's Dilemma
    Tit for Tat

    The classical prisoner's dilemma

    The Prisoner's Dilemma was originally framed by Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher working at RAND in 1950. Albert W. Tucker formalized the game with prison sentence payoffs and gave it the "Prisoner's Dilemma" name (Poundstone, 1992).

    The classical prisoner's dilemma (PD) is as follows:

    Two suspects, A and B, are arrested by the police. The police have insufficient evidence for a conviction, and, having separated both prisoners, visit each of them to offer the same deal: if one testifies for the prosecution against the other and the other remains silent, the betrayer goes free and the silent accomplice receives the full 10-year sentence. If both remain silent, both prisoners are sentenced to only six months in jail for a minor charge. If each betrays the other, each receives a five-year sentence. Each prisoner must make the choice of whether to betray the other or to remain silent. However, neither prisoner knows for sure what choice the other prisoner will make. So this dilemma poses the question: How should the prisoners act?

    The dilemma can be summarized thus:

    Prisoner B Stays Silent Prisoner B Betrays
    Prisoner A Stays Silent Each serves six months Prisoner A serves ten years
    Prisoner B goes free
    Prisoner A Betrays Prisoner A goes free
    Prisoner B serves ten years
    Each serves five years

    The dilemma arises when one assumes that both prisoners only care about minimizing their own jail terms. Each prisoner has two and only two options: either to cooperate with his accomplice and stay quiet, or to defect from their implied pact and betray his accomplice in return for a lighter sentence. The outcome of each choice depends on the choice of the accomplice, but each prisoner must choose without knowing what his accomplice has chosen.

    In deciding what to do in strategic situations, it is normally important to predict what others will do. This is not the case here. If you knew the other prisoner would stay silent, your best move is to betray as you then walk free instead of receiving the minor sentence. If you knew the other prisoner would betray, your best move is still to betray, as you receive a lesser sentence than by silence. Betraying is a dominant strategy. The other prisoner reasons similarly, and therefore also chooses to betray. By both defecting they get a lower payoff than they would get by staying silent. Rational self-interested play results in each prisoner being worse off than if they had stayed silent. In more technical language, this demonstrates very elegantly that in a non-zero sum game a Nash Equilibrium need not be a Pareto optimum.

    Note that the paradox of the situation lies in that the prisoners are not defecting in hope that the other will not. Even when they both know the other to be rational and selfish, they will both play defect. Defect is what they will play no matter what, even though they know fully well that the other player is playing defect as well and that they will both be better off with a different result.

    The "Stay Silent" and "Betray" strategies are also known as "don't confess" and "confess", or the more standard "cooperate" and "defect."

    One experiment based on the simple dilemma found that approximately 40% of participants cooperated (i.e., stayed silent).[1]

    Generalized form

    We can expose the skeleton of the game by stripping it of the prisoner framing device. The generalized form of the game has been used frequently in experimental economics. The following rules give a typical realization of the game.

    There are two players and a banker. Each player holds a set of two cards: one printed with the word "Cooperate", the other printed with "Defect" (the standard terminology for the game). Each player puts one card face-down in front of the banker. By laying them face down, the possibility of a player knowing the other player's selection in advance is eliminated (although revealing one's move does not affect the dominance analysis[2]). At the end of the turn, the banker turns over both cards and gives out the payments accordingly.

    If player 1 (red) defects and player 2 (blue) cooperates, player 1 gets the Temptation to Defect payoff of 5 points while player 2 receives the Sucker's payoff of 0 points. If both cooperate they get the Reward for Mutual Cooperation payoff of 3 points each, while if they both defect they get the Punishment for Mutual Defection payoff of 1 point. The checker board payoff matrix showing the payoffs is given below.

    Canonical PD payoff matrix
    Cooperate Defect
    Cooperate 3, 3 0, 5
    Defect 5, 0 1, 1

    In "win-lose" terminology the table looks like this:

    Cooperate Defect
    Cooperate win-win lose much-win much
    Defect win much-lose much lose-lose

    These point assignments are given arbitrarily for illustration. It is possible to generalize them. Let T stand for Temptation to defect, R for Reward for mutual cooperation, P for Punishment for mutual defection and S for Sucker's payoff. The following inequalities must hold:

    T > R > P > S

    In addition to the above condition, if the game is repeatedly played by two players, the following condition should be added.[3]

    2 R > T + S

    If that condition does not hold, then full cooperation is not necessarily Pareto optimal, as the players are collectively better off by having each player alternate between cooperate and defect.

    These rules were established by cognitive scientist Douglas Hofstadter and form the formal canonical description of a typical game of Prisoner's Dilemma.

    The iterated prisoner's dilemma

    If two players play Prisoner's Dilemma more than once in succession (that is, having memory of at least one previous game), it is called iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. Amongst results shown by Nobel Prize winner Robert Aumann in his 1959 paper, rational players repeatedly interacting for indefinitely long games can sustain the cooperative outcome. Popular interest in the iterated prisoners dilemma (IPD) was kindled by Robert Axelrod in his book The Evolution of Cooperation (1984). In this he reports on a tournament he organized in which participants have to choose their mutual strategy again and again, and have memory of their previous encounters. Axelrod invited academic colleagues all over the world to devise computer strategies to compete in an IPD tournament. The programs that were entered varied widely in algorithmic complexity; initial hostility; capacity for forgiveness; and so forth.

    Axelrod discovered that when these encounters were repeated over a long period of time with many players, each with different strategies, greedy strategies tended to do very poorly in the long run while more altruistic strategies did better, as judged purely by self-interest. He used this to show a possible mechanism for the evolution of altruistic behaviour from mechanisms that are initially purely selfish, by natural selection.

    The best deterministic strategy was found to be "Tit for Tat," which Anatol Rapoport developed and entered into the tournament. It was the simplest of any program entered, containing only four lines of BASIC, and won the contest. The strategy is simply to cooperate on the first iteration of the game; after that, the player does what his opponent did on the previous move. Depending on the situation, a slightly better strategy can be "Tit for Tat with forgiveness." When the opponent defects, on the next move, the player sometimes cooperates anyway, with a small probability (around 1%-5%). This allows for occasional recovery from getting trapped in a cycle of defections. The exact probability depends on the line-up of opponents.

    By analysing the top-scoring strategies, Axelrod stated several conditions necessary for a strategy to be successful.

    Nice
    The most important condition is that the strategy must be "nice", that is, it will not defect before its opponent does. Almost all of the top-scoring strategies were nice; therefore a purely selfish strategy will not "cheat" on its opponent, for purely utilitarian reasons first.
    Retaliating
    However, Axelrod contended, the successful strategy must not be a blind optimist. It must sometimes retaliate. An example of a non-retaliating strategy is Always Cooperate. This is a very bad choice, as "nasty" strategies will ruthlessly exploit such softies.
    Forgiving
    Another quality of successful strategies is that they must be forgiving. Though they will retaliate, they will once again fall back to cooperating if the opponent does not continue to play defects. This stops long runs of revenge and counter-revenge, maximizing points.
    Non-envious
    The last quality is being non-envious, that is not striving to score more than the opponent (impossible for a ‘nice’ strategy, i.e., a 'nice' strategy can never score more than the opponent).

    Therefore, Axelrod reached the Utopian-sounding conclusion that selfish individuals for their own selfish good will tend to be nice and forgiving and non-envious. One of the most important conclusions of Axelrod's study of IPDs is that Nice guys can finish first.

    The optimal (points-maximizing) strategy for the one-time PD game is simply defection; as explained above, this is true whatever the composition of opponents may be. However, in the iterated-PD game the optimal strategy depends upon the strategies of likely opponents, and how they will react to defections and cooperations. For example, consider a population where everyone defects every time, except for a single individual following the Tit-for-Tat strategy. That individual is at a slight disadvantage because of the loss on the first turn. In such a population, the optimal strategy for that individual is to defect every time. In a population with a certain percentage of always-defectors and the rest being Tit-for-Tat players, the optimal strategy for an individual depends on the percentage, and on the length of the game.

    Deriving the optimal strategy is generally done in two ways:

    1. Bayesian Nash Equilibrium: If the statistical distribution of opposing strategies can be determined (e.g. 50% tit-for-tat, 50% always cooperate) an optimal counter-strategy can be derived analytically.[4]
    2. Monte Carlo simulations of populations have been made, where individuals with low scores die off, and those with high scores reproduce (a genetic algorithm for finding an optimal strategy). The mix of algorithms in the final population generally depends on the mix in the initial population. The introduction of mutation (random variation during reproduction) lessens the dependency on the initial population; empirical experiments with such systems tend to produce Tit-for-Tat players (see for instance Chess 1988), but there is no analytic proof that this will always occur.

    Although Tit-for-Tat is considered to be the most robust basic strategy, a team from Southampton University in England (led by Professor Nicholas Jennings [1] and consisting of Rajdeep Dash, Sarvapali Ramchurn, Alex Rogers, Perukrishnen Vytelingum) introduced a new strategy at the 20th-anniversary Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma competition, which proved to be more successful than Tit-for-Tat. This strategy relied on cooperation between programs to achieve the highest number of points for a single program. The University submitted 60 programs to the competition, which were designed to recognize each other through a series of five to ten moves at the start. Once this recognition was made, one program would always cooperate and the other would always defect, assuring the maximum number of points for the defector. If the program realized that it was playing a non-Southampton player, it would continuously defect in an attempt to minimize the score of the competing program. As a result,[5] this strategy ended up taking the top three positions in the competition, as well as a number of positions towards the bottom.

    This strategy takes advantage of the fact that multiple entries were allowed in this particular competition, and that the performance of a team was measured by that of the highest-scoring player (meaning that the use of self-sacrificing players was a form of minmaxing). In a competition where one has control of only a single player, Tit-for-Tat is certainly a better strategy. Because of this new rule, this competition also has little theoretical significance when analysing single agent strategies as compared to Axelrod's seminal tournament. However, it provided the framework for analysing how to achieve cooperative strategies in multi-agent frameworks, especially in the presence of noise. In fact, long before this new-rules tournament was played, Richard Dawkins in his book The Selfish Gene pointed out the possibility of such strategies winning if multiple entries were allowed, but remarked that most probably Axelrod would not have allowed them if they had been submitted. It also relies on circumventing rules about the prisoner's dilemma in that there is no communication allowed between the two players. When the Southampton programs engage in an opening "ten move dance" to recognize one another, this only reinforces just how valuable communication can be in shifting the balance of the game.

    If an iterated PD is going to be iterated exactly N times, for some known constant N, then it is always optimal to defect in all rounds. The only possible Nash equilibrium is to always defect. The proof goes like this: one might as well defect on the last turn, since the opponent will not have a chance to punish the player. Therefore, both will defect on the last turn. Thus, the player might as well defect on the second-to-last turn, since the opponent will defect on the last no matter what is done, and so on. For cooperation to emerge the total number of rounds must be random, or at least unknown to the players. However, even in this case always defect is no longer a strictly dominant strategy, only a Nash equilibrium. Another odd case is "play forever" prisoner's dilemma. The game is repeated infinitely many times, and the player's score is the average (suitably computed).

    The prisoner's dilemma game is fundamental to certain theories of human cooperation and trust. On the assumption that the PD can model transactions between two people requiring trust, cooperative behaviour in populations may be modelled by a multi-player, iterated, version of the game. It has, consequently, fascinated many scholars over the years. In 1975, Grofman and Pool estimated the count of scholarly articles devoted to it at over 2,000. The iterated prisoner's dilemma has also been referred to as the "Peace-War game".[6]

    Learning psychology and game theory

    Where game players can learn to estimate the likelihood of other players defecting, their own behaviour is influenced by their experience of the others' behaviour. Simple statistics show that inexperienced players are more likely to have had, overall, atypically good or bad interactions with other players. If they act on the basis of these experiences (by defecting or cooperating more than they would otherwise) they are likely to suffer in future transactions. As more experience is accrued a truer impression of the likelihood of defection is gained and game playing becomes more successful. The early transactions experienced by immature players are likely to have a greater effect on their future playing than would such transactions affect mature players. This principle goes part way towards explaining why the formative experiences of young people are so influential and why, for example, those who are particularly vulnerable to bullying sometimes become bullies themselves.

    The likelihood of defection in a population may be reduced by the experience of cooperation in earlier games allowing trust to build up.[7] Hence self-sacrificing behaviour may, in some instances, strengthen the moral fibre of a group. If the group is small the positive behaviour is more likely to feed back in a mutually affirming way, encouraging individuals within that group to continue to cooperate. This is allied to the twin dilemma of encouraging those people whom one would aid to indulge in behaviour that might put them at risk. Such processes are major concerns within the study of reciprocal altruism, group selection, kin selection and moral philosophy.

    Rationality and super-rationality

    One resolution of the dilemma proposed by Douglas Hofstadter in his Metamagical Themas is to reject the definition of "rational" that led to the "rational" decision to defect. In this view, truly rational (or "superrational") players take into account that the other person is (presumably) superrational, like them, and thus they behave identically, and thus they cooperate. This analysis of the one-shot game is in complete contradiction to classical game theory, but according to this view follows naturally from the symmetry between the two players:

    • an optimal strategy must be the same for both players (unlike the terms of the classical prisoner's game)
    • the result must lie on the diagonal of the payoff matrix
    • maximize return from solutions on the diagonal
    • cooperate

    Morality

    While it is sometimes thought that morality must involve the constraint of self-interest, David Gauthier famously argues that co-operating in the prisoners dilemma on moral principles is consistent with self-interest and the axioms of game theory. It is most prudent to give up straightforward maximizing and instead adopt a disposition of constrained maximization, according to which one resolves to cooperate with all similarly disposed persons and defect on the rest. In other words, moral constraints are justified because they make us all better off, in terms of our preferences (whatever they may be). This form of contractarianism claims that good moral thinking is just an elevated and subtly strategic version of plain old means-end reasoning. Those that defect can be predicted because people are not completely opaque.

    Douglas Hofstadter expresses a strong personal belief that the mathematical symmetry is reinforced by a moral symmetry, along the lines of the Kantian categorical imperative: defecting in the hope that the other player cooperates is morally indefensible. If players treat each other as they would treat themselves, then off-diagonal results cannot occur.

    Real-life examples

    These particular examples, involving prisoners and bag switching and so forth, may seem contrived, but there are in fact many examples in human interaction as well as interactions in nature that have the same payoff matrix. The prisoner's dilemma is therefore of interest to the social sciences such as economics, politics and sociology, as well as to the biological sciences such as ethology and evolutionary biology. Many natural processes have been abstracted into models in which living beings are engaged in endless games of Prisoner's Dilemma (PD). This wide applicability of the PD gives the game its substantial importance.

    In political science, for instance, the PD scenario is often used to illustrate the problem of two states engaged in an arms race. Both will reason that they have two options, either to increase military expenditure or to make an agreement to reduce weapons. Neither state can be certain that the other one will keep to such an agreement; therefore, they both incline towards military expansion. The paradox is that both states are acting rationally, but producing an apparently irrational result. This could be considered a corollary to deterrence theory.

    In sociology or criminology, the PD may be applied to an actual dilemma facing two inmates. The game theorist Marek Kaminski, a former political prisoner, analysed the factors contributing to payoffs in the game set up by a prosecutor for arrested defendants (cf. References). He concluded that while the PD is the ideal game of a prosecutor, numerous factors may strongly affect the payoffs and potentially change the properties of the game.

    In program management and technology development, the PD applies to the relationship between the customer and the developer. Capt Dan Ward, an officer in the US Air Force, examined The Program Manager's Dilemma in an article published in Defense AT&L, a defense technology journal.[8]

    Another example concerns a well-known concept in cycling races, for instance in the Tour de France. Consider two cyclists halfway in a race, with the peloton (larger group) at great distance behind them. The two cyclists often work together (mutual cooperation) by sharing the tough load of the front position, where there is no shelter from the wind. If neither of the cyclists makes an effort to stay ahead, the peloton will soon catch up (mutual defection). An often-seen scenario is one cyclist doing the hard work alone (cooperating), keeping the two ahead of the peloton. In the end, this will likely lead to a victory for the second cyclist (defecting) who has an easy ride in the first cyclist's slipstream.

    Also in athletics, there is a widespread practice in high school wrestling where the participants intentionally lose unnaturally large amounts of weight so as to compete against lighter opponents. In doing so, the participants are clearly not at their top level of physical and athletic fitness and yet often end up competing against the same opponents anyway, who have also followed this practice (mutual defection). The result is a reduction in the level of competition. Yet if a participant maintains their natural weight (cooperating), they will most likely compete against a stronger opponent who has lost considerable weight.

    Advertising is sometimes cited as a real life example of the prisoner’s dilemma. When cigarette advertising was legal in the United States, competing cigarette manufacturers had to decide how much money to spend on advertising. The effectiveness of Firm A’s advertising was partially determined by the advertising conducted by Firm B. Likewise, the profit derived from advertising for Firm B is affected by the advertising conducted by Firm A. If both Firm A and Firm B chose to advertise during a given period the advertising cancels out, receipts remain constant, and expenses increase due to the cost of advertising. Both firms would benefit from a reduction in advertising. However, should Firm B choose not to advertise, Firm A could benefit greatly by advertising. Nevertheless, the optimal amount of advertising by one firm depends on how much advertising the other undertakes. As the best strategy is dependent on what the other firm chooses there is no dominant strategy and this is not a prisoner's dilemma but rather is an example of a stag hunt. The outcome is similar, though, in that both firms would be better off were they to advertise less than in the equilibrium. Sometimes cooperative behaviors do emerge in business situations. For instance, cigarette manufacturers endorsed the creation of laws banning cigarette advertising, understanding that this would reduce costs and increase profits across the industry.[7] This analysis is likely to be pertinent in many other business situations involving advertising.

    Large software projects under the GPL (such as Linux) can force cooperation in an otherwise standard PD situation. Given a piece of Free Software, you can study the (modifiable) source code and make improvements. Then you can keep secret the improved version, i.e. keep the modified source code to yourself and distribute it in an unmodifiable binary form (defect). Alternatively, you could share the improved version in a modifiable source code form (cooperate). If everyone defects, then many are probably making exactly the same improvements. For any software that is under the GPL, it is illegal to distribute only the unmodifiable form, including any changes made, thus forcing cooperation. Hence, rival parties can all work on it and know that none will defect, and all share in the improvements made by the others.

    Many real-life dilemmas involve multiple players. Although metaphorical, Hardin's tragedy of the commons may be viewed as an example of a multi-player generalization of the PD: Each villager makes a choice for personal gain or restraint. The collective reward for unanimous (or even frequent) defection is very low payoffs (representing the destruction of the "commons"). Such multi-player PDs are not formal as they can always be decomposed into a set of classical two-player games. The commons are not always exploited: William Poundstone, in a book about the Prisoner's Dilemma (see References below), describes a situation in New Zealand where newspaper boxes are left unlocked. It is possible for someone to take a paper without paying (defecting) but very few do, perhaps feeling that if they do not pay then nor will others, destroying the system. (Because there is no mechanism for personal choice to influence others' decisions this widespread line of reasoning is called "magical thinking".)[9] Newspapers are less risky to distribute under the honour system than other consumables because taking more than one offers very little extra benefit. Another real-life example is gridlock.

    The theoretical conclusion of PD is one reason why, in many countries, plea bargaining is forbidden. Often, precisely the PD scenario applies: it is in the interest of both suspects to confess and testify against the other prisoner/suspect, even if each is innocent of the alleged crime. Arguably, the worst case is when only one party is guilty — here, the innocent one is unlikely to confess, while the guilty one is likely to confess and testify against the innocent.

    Related games

    Closed-bag exchange

    Hofstadter[10] once suggested that people often find problems such as the PD problem easier to understand when it is illustrated in the form of a simple game, or trade-off. One of several examples he used was "closed bag exchange":

    Two people meet and exchange closed bags, with the understanding that one of them contains money, and the other contains a purchase. Either player can choose to honour the deal by putting into his bag what he agreed, or he can defect by handing over an empty bag.

    In this game, defection is always the best course, implying that rational agents will never play, and that "closed bag exchange" will be a missing market due to adverse selection. However, in this case both players cooperating and both players defecting actually give the same result, so chances of mutual cooperation, even in repeated games, are few.

    Friend or Foe?

    Friend or Foe? is a game show that aired from 2002 to 2005 on the Game Show Network in the United States. It is an example of the prisoner's dilemma game tested by real people, but in an artificial setting. On the game show, three pairs of people compete. As each pair is eliminated, they play a game of Prisoner's Dilemma to determine how their winnings are split. If they both cooperate (Friend), they share the winnings 50-50. If one cooperates and the other defects (Foe), the defector gets all the winnings and the cooperator gets nothing. If both defect, both leave with nothing. Notice that the payoff matrix is slightly different from the standard one given above, as the payouts for the "both defect" and the "cooperate while the opponent defects" cases are identical. This makes the "both defect" case a weak equilibrium, compared with being a strict equilibrium in the standard prisoner's dilemma. If you know your opponent is going to vote Foe, then your choice does not affect your winnings. In a certain sense, Friend or Foe has a payoff model between "Prisoner's Dilemma" and "Chicken".

    The payoff matrix is

    Cooperate Defect
    Cooperate 1, 1 0, 2
    Defect 2, 0 0, 0

    This payoff matrix was later used on the British television programmes Shafted and Golden Balls.

    See also

    Notes

    1. ^ Tversky, Amos (2004). Preference, Belief, and Similarity: Selected Writings. MIT Press. ISBN 026270093X. 
    2. ^ A simple "tell" that partially or wholly reveals one player's choice — such as the Red player playing their Cooperate card face-up — does not change the fact that Defect is the dominant strategy. When one is considering the game itself, communication has no effect whatsoever. However, when the game is being played in real life considerations outside of the game itself may cause communication to matter. It is a point of utmost importance to the full implications of the dilemma that when we do not need to take into account external considerations, single-instance Prisoner's Dilemma is not affected in any way by communications.

      Even in single-instance Prisoner's Dilemma, meaningful prior communication about issues external to the game could alter the play environment, by raising the possibility of enforceable side contracts or credible threats. For example, if the Red player plays their Cooperate card face-up and simultaneously reveals a binding commitment to blow the jail up if and only if Blue Defects (with additional payoff -11,-10), then Blue's Cooperation becomes dominant. As a result, players are screened from each other and prevented from communicating outside of the game.

    3. ^ Dawkins, Richard (1989). The Selfish Gene. Oxford University Press. ISBN 0-19-286092-5.  Page: 204 of Paperback edition
    4. ^ For example see the 2003 study “Bayesian Nash equilibrium; a statistical test of the hypothesis” for discussion of the concept and whether it can apply in real economic or strategic situations (from Tel Aviv University).
    5. ^ The 2004 Prisoner's Dilemma Tournament Results show University of Southampton's strategies in the first three places, despite having fewer wins and many more losses than the GRIM strategy. (Note that in a PD tournament, the aim of the game is not to “win” matches - that can easily be achieved by frequent defection). It should also be pointed out that even without implicit collusion between software strategies (exploited by the Southampton team) tit-for-tat is not always the absolute winner of any given tournament; it would be more precise to say that its long run results over a series of tournaments outperform its rivals. (In any one event a given strategy can be slightly better adjusted to the competition than tit-for-tat, but tit-for-tat is more robust). The same applies for the tit-for-tat-with-forgiveness variant, and other optimal strategies: on any given day they might not 'win' against a specific mix of counter-strategies.

      An alternative way of putting it is using the Darinian ESS simulation. In such a simulation Tit-for-Tat will almost always come to dominate, though nasty strategies will drift in and out of the population because a Tit-for-Tat population is penetratable by non-retaliating nice strategies which in turn are easy prey for the nasty strategies. Richard Dawkins showed that here no static mix of strategies form a stable equilibrium and the system will always oscillate between bounds.

    6. ^ Shy, O., 1996, Industrial Organization: Theory and Applications, Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.
    7. ^ a b This argument for the development of cooperation through trust is given in The Wisdom of Crowds , where it is argued that long-distance capitalism was able to form around a nucleus of Quakers, who always dealt honourably with their business partners. (Rather than defecting and reneging on promises – a phenomenon that had discouraged earlier long-term unenforceable overseas contracts). It is argued that dealings with reliable merchants allowed the meme for cooperation to spread to other traders, who spread it further until a high degree of cooperation became a profitable strategy in general commerce
    8. ^ Ward, D. (2004) The Program Manager's Dilemma The Program Manager's Dilemma (Defense AT&L, Defense Acquisition University Press).
    9. ^ As well as being an explanation for the lack of petty-theft, magical thinking has been used to explain such things as voluntary voting (where a non-voter is considered a free rider). Potentially, it might be used to explain Wikipedia contributions: Text may be added under the assumption that if contributions are not made, then similar people will also fail to contribute (i.e. arguing from effect to cause). Alternatively, the explanation could depend on expected future actions (and not require a magical connection). Modelling future interactions requires the addition of the temporal dimension, as given in the Iterated prisoner’s dilemma section.
    10. ^ Hofstadter, Douglas R. (1985). Metamagical Themas: questing for the essence of mind and pattern. Bantam Dell Pub Group. ISBN 0-465-04566-9.  - see Ch.29 The Prisoner's Dilemma Computer Tournaments and the Evolution of Cooperation.

    References

    • Robert Aumann, “Acceptable points in general cooperative n-person games”, in R. D. Luce and A. W. Tucker (eds.), Contributions to the Theory 23 of Games IV, Annals of Mathematics Study 40, 287–324, Princeton University Press, Princeton NJ.
    • Axelrod, R. (1984). The Evolution of Cooperation. ISBN 0-465-02121-2
    • Kenneth Binmore, Fun and Games.
    • David M. Chess (1988). Simulating the evolution of behavior: the iterated prisoners' dilemma problem. Complex Systems, 2:663–670.
    • Dresher, M. (1961). The Mathematics of Games of Strategy: Theory and Applications Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
    • Flood, M.M. (1952). Some experimental games. Research memorandum RM-789. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA.
    • Kaminski, Marek M. (2004) Games Prisoners Play Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-11721-7 http://webfiles.uci.edu/mkaminsk/www/book.html
    • Poundstone, W. (1992) Prisoner's Dilemma Doubleday, NY NY.
    • Greif, A. (2006). Institutions and the Path to the Modern Economy: Lessons from Medieval Trade. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
    • Rapoport, Anatol and Albert M. Chammah (1965). Prisoner's Dilemma. University of Michigan Press.
    • Le, S. & Boyd, R. (In press). Evolutionary dynamics of the continuous iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, Journal of Theoretical Biology Full text
    • A. Rogers, R. K. Dash, S. D. Ramchurn, P. Vytelingum and N. R. Jennings (2007) “Coordinating team players within a noisy iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma tournament” Theoretical Computer Science 377 (1-3) 243-259. [2]

    Further reading

    • Plous, S. (1993). Prisoner's Dilemma or Perceptual Dilemma? Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 30, No. 2, 163-179.

    External links

    Tit for Tat Winning Strategy

    Tit for tat is a highly effective strategy in game theory for the iterated prisoner's dilemma. It was first introduced by Anatol Rapoport in Robert Axelrod's two tournaments, held around 1980. Based on the English saying meaning "equivalent retaliation" ("tit for tat"), an agent using this strategy will initially cooperate, then respond in kind to an opponent's previous action. If the opponent previously was cooperative, the agent is cooperative. If not, the agent is not. This is similar to reciprocal altruism in biology.

    Contents

    Overview

    This strategy is dependent on four conditions that has allowed it to become the most prevalent strategy for the prisoner's dilemma:

    1. Unless provoked, the agent will always cooperate
    2. If provoked, the agent will retaliate
    3. The agent is quick to forgive
    4. The agent must have a good chance of competing against the opponent more than once.

    In the last condition, the definition of "good chance" depends on the payoff matrix of the prisoner's dilemma. The important thing is that the competition continues long enough for repeated punishment and forgiveness to generate a long-term payoff higher than the possible loss from cooperating initially.

    A fifth condition applies to make the competition meaningful: if an agent knows that the next play will be the last, it should naturally defect for a higher score. Similarly if it knows that the next two plays will be the last, it should defect twice, and so on. Therefore the number of competitions must not be known in advance to the agents.

    Against a variety of alternative strategies, tit for tat was the most effective, winning in several annual automated tournaments against (generally far more complex) strategies created by teams of computer scientists, economists, and psychologists. Game theorists informally believed the strategy to be optimal (although no proof was presented).

    It is important to know that tit for tat still is the most effective strategy if the average performance of each competing team is compared. The team which recently won over a pure tit for tat team only outperformed it with some of their algorithms because they submitted multiple algorithms which would recognize each other and assume a master and slave relationship (one algorithm would "sacrifice" itself and obtain a very poor result in order for the other algorithm to be able to outperform Tit for Tat on an individual basis, but not as a pair or group). Still, this "group" victory illustrates an important limitation of the Prisoner's Dilemma in representing social reality, namely, that it does not include any natural equivalent for friendship or alliances. The advantage of "tit for tat" thus pertains only to a Hobbesian world of rational solutions, not to a world in which humans are inherently social.

    Example of play

    Cooperate Defect
    Cooperate 3, 3 0, 5
    Defect 5, 0 1, 1
    Prisoner's dilemma example

    Assume there are 4 agents: 2 are Tit for Tat players ("variables") and 2 are "Defectors", simply trying to maximize their own winnings by always giving evidence against the other. Assume that each player faces the other 3 in a match lasting 6 games. If one player gives evidence against a player who does not, the former gains 5 points and the latter nets 0. If both refrain from giving evidence, both gain 3 points. If both give evidence against each other, both gain 1 point.

    When a variable faces off against a defector, the former refrains from giving evidence in the first game while the defector does the opposite, gaining the control 5 points. In the remaining 5 games, both players give evidence against each other, netting 1 point each game. The final score is: Defector - 10 | Variable - 5.

    When the variables face off against each other, each refrains from giving evidence in all 6 games. 6 * 3 = 18 points, the final score being Variable(1) - 18 | Variable(2) - 18.

    When the defectors face off, each gives evidence against the other in all 6 games. 6 * 1 = 6 points, the final score being Defector(1) - 6 | Defector(2) - 6.

    The final score for each variable is 5 (game against defector(1)) + 5 (game against defector(2)) + 18 (game against variable) = 28 points. The final score for each defector is 10 (against variable(1)) + 10 (against variable(2)) + 6 (against defector) = 26 points.

    Despite the fact that the variables never won a match and the defectors never lost a match, the variables still came out ahead, because the final score is not determined by the winner of matches, but the scorer of points. Simply put, the variables gained more points tying with each other than they lost to the defectors. The more variables that there are in the game, the more advantage it is to be a variable.

    (This example was taken from Piers Anthony's novel, Golem in the Gears.)

    Implications

    The success of the strategy, which is largely cooperative, took many by surprise. In successive competitions various teams produced complex strategies which attempted to "cheat" in a variety of cunning ways, but Tit for Tat eventually prevailed in every competition.

    Some theorists believe this result may give insight into how groups of animals (and particularly human societies) have come to live in largely (or entirely) cooperative societies, rather than the individualistic "red in tooth and claw" way that might be expected from individual engaged in a Hobbesian state of nature. This, and particularly its application to human society and politics, is the subject of Robert Axelrod's book The Evolution of Cooperation.

    Problems

    While it has been empirically shown (by Axelrod) that the strategy is optimal in some cases, two agents playing tit for tat remain vulnerable. A one-time, single-bit error in either player's interpretation of events can lead to an unending "death spiral". In this symmetric situation, each side perceives itself as preferring to cooperate, if only the other side would. But each is forced by the strategy into repeatedly punishing an opponent who continues to attack despite being punished in every game cycle. Both sides come to think of themselves as innocent and acting in self-defense, and their opponent as either evil or too stupid to learn to cooperate.

    This situation frequently arises in real world conflicts, ranging from schoolboy fights to civil and regional wars. Tit for two tats could be used to avoid this problem.

    "Tit for Tat with forgiveness" is sometimes superior. When the opponent defects, on the next move, the player sometimes cooperates anyway, with a small probability (around 1%-5%). This allows for occasional recovery from getting trapped in a cycle of defections. The exact probability depends on the line-up of opponents.

    Tit for two tats

    Tit for Two Tats is similar to Tit for Tat in that it is nice, retaliating, forgiving and non-envious, the only difference between the two being how nice the strategy is.

    In a tit for tat strategy once an opponent defects, the tit for tat player immediately responds by defecting on the next move. This has the unfortunate consequence of causing two retaliatory strategies to continuously defect against one another resulting in a poor outcome for both players. A tit for two tats player will let the first defection go unchallenged as a means to avoid the "death spiral" of the previous example. If the opponent defects twice in a row, the tit for two tats player will respond by defecting.

    This strategy was put forward by Robert Axelrod during his second round of computer simulations at RAND. After analyzing the results of the first experiment he determined that had a participant entered the tit for two tats strategy it would have emerged with a higher cumulative score than any other program. As a result he himself entered it with high expectations in the second tournament. Unfortunately due to the more aggressive nature of the programs entered in the second round, tit for two tats did significantly worse than tit for tat due to aggressive strategies being able to take advantage of its highly forgiving nature.

    Popular culture

    The tit for tat strategy was employed in an episode of Numb3rs, where FBI agents were interrogating and attempting to obtain information from an inmate on death row. The strategy was working, but the FBI would not implement a "tit for two tats".

    Live and Let Live

    The tit for tat strategy has been detected by analysts in the spontaneous non-violent behaviour, called "live and let live" that arose during the First World War. The Christmas truce of 1914 appears to be an example.

    See also

    External links

    References


    This article is licensed under the GNU Free Documentation License. It uses material from Wikipedia Encyclopedia article "Prisoner's Dilemma"

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